4.4, 4.5…

With the 2008 Combine having just passed us by and folks still gushing over Chris Johnson’s 4.24 40 time, I thought it appropriate to dust off this gem from last year’s Combine. Enjoy!

4.4, 4.5… Whatever It Takes

If Player A runs a 4.49 40 and Player B runs a 4.50, is that really worth getting your undies in a bunch over on draft day? For some teams, the unfortunate answer is yes. However, there are lessons to be learned from the NFL’s quest for speed as you plot out your dynasty league wide receiver strategy.

This column is the perfect storm of my burgeoning infatuation—some have gone so far as to call it a sickness—with the NFL draft, my life-long lust for speed, and my hometown team’s swing-and-a-miss pick of Troy Williamson in 2005.

Plus, it’s a great excuse to repurpose a solid line from the underrated Michael Keaton classic, Mr. Mom.

Recent news that Calvin Johnson ran in the 4.3s has only sparked this flame. So I set out to learn if speed was in fact the key to a successful NFL career as a wide receiver—and more specifically, if that speed translated into fantasy success.

My research took me back to the 2000 draft and excluded last year’s crop of wideouts because we haven’t really seen enough yet. I limited my research to receivers drafted on Day One—the first three rounds. Then the trick became finding 40 times for these receivers at the time they were drafted. Some digging, my intrinsic pack rat nature, and assist from former colleague and current Pro Football Weekly wonk Court E. Mann gave me what I needed.

The results? In five of the six drafts between 2000 and 2005, the wide receiver who had the fastest 40 time was in fact a relevant fantasy player last season. In case you’re curious, that group includes Laveranues Coles in 2000, Santana Moss and Chris Chambers in 2001, Donte’ Stallworth in 2002, Roy Williams and Devery Henderson in 2004, and Matt Jones in 2005. The exception was 2003, when Bethel Johnson and Tyrone Calico posted the top two times.

So, speed kills, right? After all, if you look at the five fastest times in each draft and add up the fantasy relevant players, 13 of those 30 receivers (43 percent) were fantasy relevant last year.

However, of the slower Day One receivers—49 in all—10 were fantasy factors last season. That’s 20 percent—half the success rate of the burners, but still a pretty good chunk.

Let’s look at this another way. If you only look at speed—like the Vikings did with Williamson—you’re going to get burned. In each of the six drafts studied above I found a one-step outlier who dramatically outperformed one or more of his speedier counterparts.

Wait a minute, you ask. What’s a “one-step outlier”?

Before I give you the answer, here’s some background. My digging for this article unearthed a tremendous article written by Mark Zeigler of the San Diego Union Tribune. I’ll go into more detail on some of his findings later, but one particular line in that article struck me.

Zeigler wrote that about three inches separate a player who runs a 4.49 and one who runs a 4.50. Using some imperfect math, it stands to reason that 0.04 (four one-hundredths of a second) would equal one foot, and 0.12 would then equal one yard—or roughly one step.

So in a straight 40-yard race, someone running a 4.50 would beat someone who runs a 4.62 by approximately one yard, or one step.

A “one-step outlier”, then, is a player whose 40 time falls 0.12 seconds outside that of the faster colleague.

And so we return to my findings. In the 2000 draft Sylvester Morris, R. Jay Soward, and Dez White were all one step faster than Plaxico Burress; which one has had the better NFL (and fantasy) career?

In 2001 the Bears were all over David Terrell, in no small part because he was a step faster than the likes of Reggie Wayne and Chad Johnson. Ooops.

The 2002 comparison isn’t quite as dramatic, though fantasy owners would certainly rather have Deion Branch than Cliff Russell. In 2003, Charles Rogers and Taylor Jacobs were both a step faster than Anquan Boldin. In 2004 the speed of Derrick Hamilton and Devard Darling was enticing, but ultimately it’s been Bernard Berrian with the more productive career.

And in 2005, of course, the Vikings pined for Williamson. There were certainly other reasons to pass on Chris Henry, who was a full step slower, but one of them was a fantasy helper last year despite his struggles with the law, and the other couldn’t catch a cold if a daycare full of toddlers sneezed on him.

If that doesn’t lead you to cast a wary eye upon the upcoming spate of 40 times we’ll be inundated with, consider this gem from Zeigler’s article. Steroid-enhanced Canadian Ben Johnson set a then-world record in the 100 meters in 1988, blazing the track in 9.79 seconds. Timing officials were able to break down that race into 10-meter increments and were amazed to learn that Johnson had also smashed the world records at 50 and 60 meters.

Care to guess what his 40 time broke down to, keeping in mind that he was chemically enhanced, trained to run, with starting blocks on a track designed for that purpose?

4.38 seconds.

So is half the NFL faster than Olympians who run for a living? Uh, no. Zeigler’s article goes into detail about how a hand-timed 4.35 actually equates to roughly a 4.91, and I won’t bore you with them here. The key is that many of the times being reported now have been conducted under extremely varied circumstances; some run on a fast track, others run with a tailwind, etc. All of these factors can add or subtract a tenth of a second.

Also, Johnson started on a gun; the estimated response time for world-class athletes is .15 seconds. When football players are timed the clock starts on their movement—usually their hand is on a triggering mechanism and the clock starts when they lift their hand. If you’re able to keep your hand down that extra split second as you come out of your stance, there’s another few one-hundredths.

Obviously, timing the 40 is an imperfect science. At the combine, at least the conditions will be the same, though those athletes who have been working out at a performance-enhancing camp prior to the combine may have picked up some tricks that could shave a few hundredths off their time. Those same tricks may not translate to game speed, and of course there’s the argument about when any football player actually runs 40 yards in a straight line, anyway.

So let’s reel it all back in. What does this mean for the 2007 NFL draft, your favorite NFL team’s quest to add a playmaking receiver, and your ability to pluck a keeper wideouts from this bunch?

At present, the fastest reported 40 times among projected Day One receivers are David Clowney’s 4.32, Ted Ginn’s 4.35, and Johnnie Lee Higgins’ 4.38. This will obviously change with the combine and individual Pro Days fast approaching, but based on what we’ve seen in the past you can bet one of these guys will be fantasy relevant in 2008.

But you also shouldn’t discount the likes of Dwayne Jarrett or Courtney Taylor, each of whom currently clocks in above 4.50.

Wow, here’s a novel concept: maybe the best way to analyze a wide receiver is… how well he catches the ball. Or runs his routes. Or gets separation from the defender.

Somebody get the Vikings’ personnel department on the line; I think we’ve got a breakthrough.

Ultimately, you can’t get caught up in the thrill of the chase of speed. Many mock drafts I’ve seen have the Vikings failing to learn from history and selecting the speedy Ginn. Maybe it will work; I saw more football plays from him in his abbreviated appearance in the BCS title game than I’ve seen from Williamson… well, ever. But if the Purple goes another route in round one and winds up with the slower Jason Hill later in the day, it might be the smarter move.

Same goes for your fantasy squad. So as everyone is falling all over themselves to get the 4.3 guys, don’t be afraid if your team—real or fantasy—ends up with a 4.5 sloth. You just might have the next Plax or Boldin.